Water Supply and Vulnerability Assessment at sub-basin scale in Nepal
-Kripa Thapa, Summer Rupper, Tim Collins, Simon Brewer, Matthew Olson
The central Himalayan mountains play a vital role in ensuring the hydrological flow regime of the major Nepalese rivers, with glacier and snow melt contributing significantly during the dry seasons. Hydrological models predict that enhanced glacier melt due to warming climate in the high elevations will increase the summer river flow in many Nepalese hydro basins through 2050. After this time, continued glacier mass loss and area decrease will result in a vast reduction of glacier runoff and downstream water availability. In this study, we utilized historical observations of precipitation, snowfall, glacier melt runoff, and lakes and reservoirs to develop a water supply index to determine the water supply patterns among Nepal’s sub-basins. Then, we incorporated socio-economic indicators like population density, GDP per capita, domestic consumption and industrial usage to identify populations most vulnerable to the impacts of potential water scarcity in the coming decades.